Posted: May 4, 2020 / 06:47 AM EDTUpdated: May 4, 2020 / 08:32 AM EDT
My daughter, Marie took this picture at Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon. This is just south of Holland. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until noon. This morning it’s generally cloudy from Kent Co. to the north and overcast to the north (clouds are moving south). We do expect skies to be partly to mostly sunny this afternoon.
Temperatures were in the 30s this AM pretty much statewide. It did get down to 28 at Ironwood and 30 in Newberry. Mackinac Is. and Gaylord dipped to 32 deg. The low was 35 in Ionia, 36 in G.R. and Lansing and 37 in Battle Creek. Above is the Grand Rapids National Weather Service graphic on the weather for this Mon. afternoon. Cold air continues to pour down from Canada. Half as dozen places in the U.P. made it down to or below freezing this morning, despite cloudy skies and a wind. Even colder air is north of Lake Superior. At 6 am, several weather stations north of Lake Superior showed temperatures in the teens.
The colder to much-colder-than-average weather pattern looks like it will last at least a couple of weeks. This is the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for May 11-17. Note the deep blue over the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Here’s the European model forecast low temperatures for Saturday AM. It gives G.R. 26 deg. Note how widespread the below freezing temperatures are. These temperatures are 10-20 deg. colder than average. Our upper level flow will be coming straight out of the Arctic. Needless to say, now is not the time to plant frost/freeze sensitive plants.
Here’s downtown Chicago this Monday AM – the temperature here at the water intake is just 40 with a 23 mph north wind. The Grand Rapids National Weather Service forecast discussion this morning said:
"FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY 850mb TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR -10C AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR OR OVER US. THAT BEING SO, SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE. GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR WILL BE THEN, MORE THAN LIKELY THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE SNOW SHOWERS...THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -10C HIGHS, WOULD STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 40S. RECORD LOW HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO IT WOULD BE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TO SET A FEW RECORD LOW HIGHS. RECORD LOW, LOWS FOR THE 8TH AND 9TH ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S BUT ON THE 10TH LANSING'S RECORD IS 19 AND THE OTHER SITES IS THE LOWER 20S. NORTHERN LOCATIONS LIKE BALDWIN HAVE RECORD LOWS IN THE MID TEENS FROM THE 9TH THROUGH THE 10TH. IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO BREAK SOME RECORD LOWS IF WE GOT THE SKY TO CLEAR ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS. THIS WOULD BE A HARD FREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FEATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FROM FRIDAY TILL TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA."
Freezing temperatures are likely even with cloud cover and a wind holding up. So, frost protection measures in orchards may not be of much help in those conditions.
Here’s high temperature difference from average for Saturday. It’s warm in the West and chilly in the Central and Eastern U.S. Here’s expected snowfall over the next 10 days…not much for W. Michigan, but a little.
Some good news…we may see less than 1/4″ of precipitation this week…good news for those worried about high lake and river levels. The above map is forecast precipitation over the next 7 days.
Speaking of river levels. There were several water rescues in N. Kent Co.on Sunday – kayakers. This seems to happen every spring…kayakers go down a river when the river is high and flowing fast…they get in trouble, sometimes getting hung up on a fallen tree and tip over. The water is very cold at this time of year. Best not to go out until the water level goes down and the flow isn’t quite so fast. Also, always wear a flotation device. The graph shows how quickly the flow by the Rockford dam on the Rogue River went up after the heavy rain during the middle of last week. The flow peaked on Friday and has been falling since. However, it’s still well above average flow.
Also: An update on severe weather warnings. This was not a tornado…thunderstorm winds can twist trees. Very cold in NW Europe…coldest temp. in May since 1997. Colorado supercell. Not a tornado. Historical pic. – only known collision between a car and a submarine…in 1961.