Severe Weather Monday

Bill’s Blog

Posted: Jun 22, 2020 / 12:57 AM EDT Updated: Jun 22, 2020 / 02:33 PM EDT

2 PM Monday – This is the updated Severe Weather Outlook for this this afternoon/tonight (6/23) from the Storm Prediction Center. SPC has now upgraded to a Slight Risk for much of N. Illinois and far NW Indiana. The Marginal Risk (in dark green) now includes SW Michigan – south of a line from Muskegon to Battle Creek. The General (not severe) Outlook Area includes all the rest of Michigan. In any case, it won’t bring the threat level that we had on Wednesday the 10th, when we had a Moderate Risk for much of Lower Michigan. SPC says:

"Have upgraded portions of the region for a wind-related categorical Slight Risk. Decaying outflow and prevalent cloud cover complicate the scenario somewhat, but moderate destabilization is expected particularly across north-central Illinois into northwest Indiana ahead of a weak surface low/cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms through the afternoon/early evening." 
Meso-Discussion for N. Illinois, NW Indiana and S. Lake Michigan

I’m tracking the storms moving thru northern Illinois…they are heading northeast and will move into western Michigan.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and one could pop up this afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase. It’ll be warm and a bit humid this PM with temperatures reaching the mid 80s (a bit cooler at Lake Michigan.

Storm Reports for Sunday 6/21 as of 12:30 am 6/22

Here’s the map of severe weather reports for the U.S. on Sunday (6/21). There were 6 reported tornadoes, though it looks like at least two were duplicate reports of the same tornado. This is another instance where thunderstorm winds were a much bigger and impactful story than the small tornadoes. There was one fatality in N. Alabama due to a falling tree. Winds hit 80 mph near Dodge City and Great Bend, Kansas. Three-inch diameter hail (bigger than baseballs) was reported in Western Kansas. There was one severe weather report in Michigan. That was downed trees in Holly.

Showers and thundershowers formed east of a line from Kalamazoo to Lansing Sunday afternoon. A few spots had some very heavy rain. Constantine got 2″ of rain in just one hour and Coldwater got 1.01″ of rain in just one hour. Here’s radar

Click for latest Composite Reflectivity radar image from the Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI radar and current weather warnings

and Regional Radar:

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Only a trace fell in Grand Rapids. G.R. has now gone 10 days without measurable rain. The last time we went +10 days without measurable rain was July 2-13, 2018. Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight (Mon. night) and there is a chance one could sneak in late this PM. We’ll also have a chance of a stronger storm long about Saturday.

Stay off the piers and breakwaters tomorrow, esp. the north side of the piers (like at Holland St. Park).

A Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect tomorrow for possible strong currents, especially on the NORTH sides of the piers (breakwaters). That includes Holland State Park…again that’s for Tuesday (tomorrow). At 11 am (Monday, 6/22) the water temp. of Reeds Lake is 78 and the water temperature at Holland State Park is 70.