The Tropics are Unusually Quiet

Bill’s Blog

Posted: Aug 6, 2020 / 01:36 PM EDT Updated: Aug 6, 2020 / 01:36 PM EDT

In the wake of Tropical Storm Isaias, the tropics are unusually quiet. The above map shows tropical activity the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. There is one tiny low pressure center, marked by the yellow “X”. The Hurricane Center says:

A small low pressure system located about midway between Bermuda and the Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. However, the circulation appears to be losing definition, and development is not expected.
Tropical Activity (or lack of tropical activity) in the Eastern Pacific

There are no tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific. Regarding the yellow “X”, the hurricane center says:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific just west of Central America are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

So this will likely turn into a tropical storm, but will move away from Central America.

Central Pacific – no tropical systems

Here’s the Central Pacific (Hawaii)…no hurricanes, no tropical storms, no tropical depressions.

Tropical activity on a satellite pictures from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Here’s the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. No hurricanes (called “typhoons” in the Western Pacific and “cyclones” in the Indian Ocean), no typhoons, no tropical storms. This is the most unusual map. We are near a record low of tropical activity in the Pacific and Indian Oceans at this point in the hurricane season.

Now, I do expect tropical activity to pick up considerably for the second half of August and September, especially in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico, but for now, we’ll enjoy he quiet.

There’s still a very large number (1.7 million) customers without power in the East in the wake of Tropical Storm Isaias. By state: Connecticut 604,396, New York 532,807, New Jersey 514,198, Pennsylvania 37,872, Massachusetts 36,216, Virginia 10,763, New Hampshire 6,622, Maine 4,492, North Carolina 3,797.

ALSO: Cold water temperatures at Lake Michigan: Ludington 56°, Mears 53°, Duck Lake 58°, Muskegon 57°, Hoffmaster S.P. 58°, Holland St. Park 60°, Saugatuck 54°. The Port Sheldon buoy is cold at 55°, but the warmer water has come back to the S. Haven buoy, where the water temp. is 71°. The mid-Lake Michigan buoy is 71°, Chicago 72°. The north mid-Lake Michigan buoy is 68°.