Tropical Storm Josephine

Bill’s Blog

Posted: Aug 14, 2020 / 12:32 AM EDT Updated: Aug 14, 2020 / 02:08 AM EDT

We’re already down to the 10th letter of the alphabet. The latest tropical storm is Josephine. I had an aunt “Josie” (Josephine) and my grandmother was a Josephine (aka “Josefa” – which is a Spanish name). Right after her 24th birthday and with the rest of her family save a distant aunt all deceased, she decided to leave her native Austria and get on a ship and come to this new land of opportunity called the United States. That’s a fascinating story for another time…back to the tropical storm:

cone graphic

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “F

Here’s the forecast track of the storm. It should stay far enough north of the Virgin Islands to give them little more than a chance of a wave or two of showers and a little higher than average surf…and as a depression, it would likely mean a breezy and showery Tuesday night to Bermuda. At this point, no threat to the U.S. Here’s the forecast discussion and forecast advisory on the storm. Here’s a satellite view of the Atlantic/Caribbean:
Atlantic Hurricane names for 2020

Here’s a look at the list of hurricane names for 2020 in the Atlantic. I think run the list this year, in a very active Atlantic hurricane season…the most active since the Katrina year of 2005. In the meantime, the rest of the world has had a fairly quiet hurricane season. Often the eastern Pacific gets more hurricanes than the Atlantic, but this year, we’ve only made it to the letter “e” in the Eastern Pacific.

List of Hurricane names in 2020 for the Eastern Pacific

Here’s a list of hurricane names for the Eastern Pacific for 2020. The next name on the list is Fausto and that’s forming now:

Tropical Activity in the Eastern Pacific

The biggest tropical story of the year is the lack of tropical storm activity in the Western Pacific…record quiet…which is good:

The ACE Index is a measure of the number and strength of tropical cyclone activity. Here’s where the index stands as of Fri. AM 8/14:

ACE Index as of early AM 8/14/20

While the N. Atlantic has had 190% of average activity year-to-date, look at the very low ACE number in the Eastern and Central N. Pacific (58%) and the record low activity year-to-date (14%) in the Western N. Pacific.

While the dollar-damage from tropical storms has increased, due to inflation and the fact that there has been so much build-up along the coasts (look at Sanibel and Marco Islands), the data clearly shows that tropical storm activity has not increased over the last 30 years.