Does an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Mean a Snowy Winter

Bill’s Blog

Posted: Sep 21, 2020 / 02:16 AM EDT Updated: Sep 21, 2020 / 02:19 AM EDT

I haven’t looked at all the data that I’d want to look at to answer this question, but I did look back at the Hurricane Season of 2005. That year we had 27 named storms, going 5 letters into the Greek alphabet. That year we had hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

In Sept. 2005, the weather in West Michigan was the opposite of what is has been this year. It was warm (5.3 deg. above average) and with 3.82″ of rain. This Sept. we’re 3.7 deg. coole that average and we’ve had very little rain since 9/3. In Oct. 2005, it was 4.8° warmer than average with only 0.71″ of rain all month in G.R. November was 2.1° warmer than average, but it was cool and snowy after thr 16th. 17.3″ of snow fell from the 16th to the 30th. December was 1.8° colder than average, the only cool month. That was followed by the 3rd warmest January ever with temps. a little above average in Feb. and Mar. For the winter, G.R. had 69.2″ of snow, slightly below average.

There are other factors that we’ll be looking at, from computer models to analog years (when we had similar conditions in the past, what happened?) to early snowpack in Siberia and N. Canada. Here’s Arctic sea ice:

Arctic Sea Ice

Here’s a graph of Arctic sea ice from the National Snow and Ice data center. Looks like we’ve hit on seasonal minimum, which usually occurs in mid-late September. The ice extent is quite low, but not as low as it was in the record (since the late 1970s) year of 2012. Here’s current Northern Hemisphere snowcover and ice extent:

Northern Hemisphere snow cover and ice extent

Yellow on the map is sea ice. The white is snow cover. There’s a smattering of snow in Siberia and far N. Canada. We take a more serious look at early snow cover in late October.

Forecast high temperatures for Alaska for Monday 9/21

Here’s a look at high temperatures expected this Monday in Alaska – nothing terribly cold here, with highs in the 30s (north), 40s (central and in the W. Aleutian Islands) and 50s (south and panhandle).

High temperatures Monday for the Contiguous 48 states

High temperatures today will be in the 60s in the Northeast, lots of 70s and 80s with some 100’s in the Desert Southwest.