Bill’s Blog

Posted: Oct 11, 2020 / 04:14 AM EDT Updated: Oct 11, 2020 / 07:17 PM EDT

Here’s a quick summary of the week’s weather: Partly sunny and generally pleasant today (Sun.) with an east wind at 10-15 mph and high temps. mostly in the mid 60s. Monday – Mostly cloudy, dry in the AM – a solid band (chance of rain near 100%) of rain will move in from west to east during the afternoon. This will be mostly showers, but an embedding thundershower is possible. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center:

Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center for Monday PM

The light green is the General (not severe) Thunderstorm Area, including all of Michigan. While severe weather is not likely, we could see gusty winds to 40 mph with this line of showers/storms and 1/4 to 1/2″ of rain in about 3 hours.

We’ll be back to partly sunny skies for Tuesday and Wednesday. The next cold front on Thursday will likely touch off at least scattered showers. Temperatures may be warmest in the early morning Thursday and then fall a few degrees down through the 50s during the day.

Colder air will keep temps. in the 40s for much of the day on Fri. and Sat. with the possibility of lake-effect rain showers. The coldest air aloft is late Fri. night/early Sat. AM and it’s not impossible that there could be a rain/snow mix somewhere then.

GFS model for Oct. 19, 2020

A better chance will come with the next shot of cold air. This is the GFS model for Monday, Oct. 19. The thickness of 526 is cold enough for at least some mixed snow and you can see a little green in West Michigan (and in fact downwind from all the Great Lakes. It sure looks like some lake-effect snow for the U.P. On the European model, the temperature a mile above ground goes down into the upper teens. The Canadian model is even colder.

Bottom line…outside chance of a little mixed snow late this week, but a better chance of mixed snow comes around the 19th/20th.

Snow and Ice Cover

Here’s current snow and ice cover. The ice cover in the Arctic is the 2nd lowest in the satellite era, second only to 2012. That year we had a super warm March and a 100-degree heat wave in July. Snow is starting to accumulate in both Siberia and in Northern Canada.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 10 9 20

The map above is the sea-surface temperature anomaly (difference from average). You can see the La Nina – colder than average water along the Equator west of South America. You can also see where Hurricane Delta’s winds stirred up some cooler water from below the surface from the Yucatan to Louisiana. There is warmer than average water both east and west of the U.S. That would favor a winter trough over the middle of the country.

Summary of the Atlantic Hurricane Season from Colorado St. Univ.

This is a summary of the Atlantic hurricane season from Colorado St. University. The column on the right is the ACE Index – a measure of the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes. The storm that (by far) generated the most ACE points was “Teddy”. You didn’t hear about “Teddy” because it didn’t do much damage – skirting by the Antilles, Bermuda and E. Canada. It did kick up some big waves in the NE U.S. On the other hand, “Cristobal” a tropical storm with a relatively low ACE of 3.5 did over 645 million dollars in damage.