GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Timing can be everything and that will be demonstrated this weekend with the weather.
Last year, kids probably had a few snowflakes mixed in with their candy as they trudged through Halloween’s cold temperatures.
This year, Halloween will feature temperatures in the 50s and mostly sunny skies.
A deep trough will develop in the jetstream Sunday over the Great Lakes which will briefly unload the coldest air of the season to date. Temperatures early Sunday morning will be near 40 degrees then will fall into the 30s with a strong wind. Wind chills later in the afternoon could slip into the teens.
If you have yet to witness the season’s first snowflakes, I’m confident you will Sunday. This is the time of year when it typically happens.
I think most locations in southwest Michigan will avoid accumulations but a few areas north of Grand Rapids could see some on grassy surfaces.
Snowfall has already been robust this month in some parts of the Upper Peninsula.
Take Marquette for example, setting a record for snowfall this October at 21.5 inches. More than half the days this month have had at least a trace of snow.
We average just under seven inches of snow in November with a big jump occurring in December.
As you can see below, the dates and amounts of the first inch of snow can vary quite a bit. Some years we have to wait until December.
Some Novembers don’t even record an inch of snow the entire month. In November 2014, we received a record 31 inches of snow.
While we are on the subject of snow, I thought I would share with you the winter guidance from the National Weather Service’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Although I like the general idea for temperatures in the graphic above, I would expand the cold further south and east across the Upper Peninsula.
The likelihood of above-average precipitation would indicate Michigan and much of the Great Lakes will be in the crosshairs of many winter storms. The question will be how many will track just south or north of us?
If more tracks south of us, there will be a higher chance of snow. If more tracks north and/or west of us, it would represent a higher chance of rain and mixed precipitation. This would keep snow amounts down.
This forecast was heavily weighted on the premise that there will be a moderate La Niña that continues through the winter.
When we tally the 2020-2021 season up, I think we will exceed last year’s total of 53.5 inches of snow. I would expect amounts to be much closer to the Grand Rapids average of 74.9 inches.
I think we have a real good chance for a white Christmas as well. If you love a lot of snow, I think northern Michigan will have an excellent year.
Now with all this talk of snow, let me try and warm you up.
Although the first day of November will be quite cold, it appears a strong warm-up will occur during the middle of next week, leading to a good chance of 60s.
So maybe one last outing on the golf course before we trade in the golf clubs for the snow shovels.