Snowstorm Next Sunday/Monday?

Well, well well – the Wed. AM run of the European model is forecasting a snowstorm for Lower Michigan on Monday. Let me start that most other models have this storm weaker and staying mostly to our south. Update:

The Wed. night run of the GFS would give G.R. a couple inches of snow on Sunday and becoming partly sunny on Monday. The Wed. night updated European model run gives us a dusting on Friday, around an inch on Sunday and then maybe 4-7″ south of G.R. on Monday…so it’s backed off on the amounts, but still has snow here on Monday. I think the best bet for heavier snow may be in N. Indiana…with more snow as you go south and less to the north with this system.

Don’t get too excited (one way or the other) about this…way too soon for that. I’m just alerting you to the possibility of some snow next Sunday and/or Monday.

Snowfall totals from the 1/20 – Wed. – run of the European model for next Monday

The European model tends to sometimes overdue snowfall totals, but even half these forecast amounts would be a significant event (especially the way this year has gone). This model currently is forecast around a foot of snow between I-96 and I-94. Most models have this system weaker and farther south and some don’t give any snow at all north of I-94.

Here’s what the G.R. NWS said in their Weds. PM forecast discussion: “WE WAIT TO SEE IF THE TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CAN COME THIS FAR NORTH? MOST OF THE ECMWF (European) ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z RUN SAY YES IT WILL. ON THE OTHER HAND NEARLY NONE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIKE THE IDEA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE AS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES HAVE A WAY OF GETTING FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST AND WITH THE ECMWF (european) FORECASTING THIS TO HAPPEN, THAT DOES MEAN THIS DOES HAVE ACHANCE TO ACTUALLY HAPPEN.”

10-day snowfall

The map above shows estimated snowfall over the next 10 days from the European model. This is southern California. Snow is forecast in the coastal mountains all the way down into Mexico. The snow level could get down to 3,000 feet and low temperatures could reach the upper 30s in coastal areas.

Some significant rain fell in the Southwest Desert today. Yuma, Arizona reported 0.80″ and Blythe, California had 0.64″.

So, stay tuned to later forecasts – and I’ll be updating the blog from time to time.

Dry today – main roads in good shape

Windy at Lake Michigan, breezy inland today – high temps. mostly upper 30s. Main roads mostly dry could get a little wet from melting snow today – still a few icy spots this AM on sidewalks, driveways and parking lots.

The past week has been warmer than average over most of the U.S. The exception has been in the South and Southeast.

ALSO: I’m getting four new tires on my Explorer today. Small Craft Advisories until 1 am Saturday – it stays breezy inland and windy at Lake Michigan. More rain for the Desert Southwest. Video of Indonesia waterspout. Gulf sunset. Windy in Wyoming. We now have a waxing (moving toward full) half moon tonight. Waterfall. How about this for a red sunset. Sunset at Watersound Beach.