SPECIAL REPORT — As we glance again on the main nationwide and international safety occasions of 2024, it’s tempting to overuse sure phrases: beautiful; staggering; seismic; paradigm shift. You get the concept. Perhaps, within the case of this explicit yr and our explicit focus, these phrases aren’t actually exaggerations. It has been a mind-bending 12 months.
Nowhere has the impression been extra profound than within the Center East, the place assumptions have fallen like dominoes, with implications that can final a very long time and attain effectively past the area.
So we begin there, on this compilation of tales and occasions that modified the world in 2024. There have been many to select from.
Nobody noticed it coming; the autumn of Assad
It was the story that caught the world off guard, the one which even probably the most prescient forecasters hadn’t seen coming: a lightning-fast rebel that ended the brutal reign of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
The character of the revolt was additionally a shock. First, there was the pace with which a coalition of insurgent teams captured metropolis after metropolis, culminating in a takeover of the capital, Damascus, and Assad’s rushed departure. In 11 days, Syria’s 13-year-long civil conflict and 53 years of Ba’ath Get together and Assad household rule had come to an finish.
Second, there was the absence of large-scale violence; even those that believed the regime can be overthrown – in some unspecified time in the future – had imagined a bloody finish.
It was, as we mentioned right here, “a sort of Berlin Wall second for Syria,” and a seismic occasion for the complete Center East.
On the day after Assad’s ouster, Cipher Transient professional Ambassador Gary Grappo, a diplomat with many years of expertise within the Center East, mentioned he by no means thought he’d see it occur. “The day was definitely going to return,” Amb. Grappo instructed us. “I used to be simply not sure I’d be round to see it.”
The impacts had been felt from Russia to Iran — two nations whose as soon as highly effective affect in Syria took successful; in Turkey and Israel, which each made navy incursions into the nation within the rebel’s aftermath; and within the U.S., which nonetheless maintains a navy presence within the nation (double the quantity, we simply realized – now roughly 2,000 troops) as a part of a mission to counter the Islamic State.
“Simply have a look at a map,” Cipher Transient professional and former high NATO Commander Adm. James Stavridis mentioned, on the day after the rebels reached Damascus. “In case you consider it as that previous sport of Threat we performed as youngsters – poof, goes the bridge that runs from Iran over to Syria into Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. Poof, go the Russian bases on the Mediterranean, the nice and cozy climate port that they’ve cherished the best of for therefore lengthy. Their capacity to function in that japanese Mediterranean, gone in a single day. All of it is a exceptional accident.”
Two weeks after the rebel, uncertainties abound. Will clashes between the nation’s competing factions devolve into a brand new civil conflict? Might ISIS or different terrorist teams discover protected haven within the energy vacuum? And what’s going to the various powers jockeying for affect in Syria do subsequent?
However for now, this was a second to have a good time, for hundreds of thousands of Syrians, and maybe for the area writ massive. The Economist reminded us of an Assad regime slogan – qaidna lil abad – or “our chief, without end.” That’s what many individuals thought, till a surprising two weeks on the finish of 2024.
North Korean troops preventing – and dying – in Europe
From one other a part of the world, one other headline that may have appeared unimaginable a yr in the past: hundreds of “elite forces” from North Korea, preventing — and now reportedly dying — in a European conflict.
The deployment of greater than 11,000 North Koreans turned the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a very international battle. It was additionally a dramatic instance of collaboration throughout the so-called “Axis of Authoritarians,” the anti-U.S. quartet made up of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.
The North Koreans deployed first to Russian bases for coaching, to study the language and the operational workings of their new fellow troopers. Within the final weeks of the yr, they had been within the battle – attempting to push again Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk Province (extra on that beneath). Officers in Ukraine and the U.S. mentioned a number of hundred North Korean troops had been killed or injured within the preventing.
As with different objects on this checklist, the North Korean deployment carried implications effectively past the battlefield.
“I feel because of this now we have to cease pondering of North Korea as simply an remoted rogue risk, and begin pondering of the nation as a world collaborator that would trigger hurt to the broader worldwide neighborhood,” Dr. Naoko Aoki, a political scientist at RAND, instructed The Cipher Transient.
Relying who you requested, the deployment was both an indication of Russian desperation, given the nation’s staggering losses in Ukraine, or a intelligent option to make sensible use of the brand new “Axis”, and the Russia-North Korea relationship particularly. Each analyses could also be true. And the Russia-North Korea wing of that “axis” could effectively convey contemporary bother within the new yr.
One other Cipher Transient professional, Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, had one huge fear.
“North Korea is now aligned with a revanchist Russian Federation, with a mutual protection treaty that commits every to return to the protection of the opposite if attacked,” DeTrani instructed us. “The chance of an emboldened North Korea, now aligned with Russia, utilizing standard weapons to incite battle with South Korea is higher than any time because the Korean Battle.”
Ukraine invades Russia
There’s one other headline that may have appeared fanciful one yr in the past, but it surely occurred. Two and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of Ukrainian troops stormed into Russia’s Kursk province, within the first large-scale invasion of Russian territory because the second world conflict.
It was a strategic and harmful gambit by the Ukrainians, but it surely labored – and a second shock got here within the sluggish and ineffective Russian response. The Kremlin vowed swift retribution and the recapture of its territory, however at this writing, greater than 4 months later, the Ukrainians are nonetheless there. It’s hardly a game-changer for the conflict, however many consultants mentioned the Kursk assault despatched highly effective messages to all sides: Russia noticed Ukraine might convey the conflict to its entrance door; the West noticed Ukraine was not backing down; and the Ukrainians confirmed the world they had been nonetheless preventing to win.
“It is extremely vital as a result of the one manner for us to win, regardless of the political definition of victory is, is to do one thing outdoors of the field, one thing which isn’t in line with the guide,” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian Protection Minister, instructed us. “As a result of in line with the guide, the Ukrainian and Russian military would battle very equally, after which the assets distinction would kick in, and that’s what occurs with just about all symmetrical wars. So we have to battle asymmetrically.”
The incursion – and its endurance – have additionally laid naked elementary weaknesses in Russian defenses. And the occupation has given Ukraine two issues it badly wanted: a bargaining chip if and when negotiations start to finish the conflict; and the flexibility to ship a dose of their very own medication to the Russians.
When the pagers exploded – and what got here subsequent
One second — or collection of moments — in September modified two elementary assumptions within the Center East, about Israel and its arch enemy Iran.
Over the course of two days in Lebanon, hundreds of pagers exploded within the fingers or pockets of operatives of the militant group Hezbollah. 12 individuals had been killed and extra 2,000 had been wounded, however the results reached effectively past the casualty toll. The operation confirmed the depth of Israeli intelligence businesses’ penetration of Hezbollah, drove Hezbollah operatives to hunt different communications, and despatched the group’s management reeling.
Issues solely acquired worse, from the attitude of Hezbollah, when it grew to become clear that the mid-September pager assaults had been solely the opening salvo in a much bigger onslaught.
Ten days after the primary pagers blew up, Israel assassinated the longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, after which launched into an air and floor marketing campaign that decimated the group’s management and arsenal of weapons. All of which weakened their patron Iran as effectively.
“Hezbollah as a preventing pressure has been severely degraded and diminished,” Ambassador Dennis Ross, Mideast envoy in each the George H.W. Bush and Invoice Clinton administrations, instructed The Cipher Transient. “Its whole management cohort has been eradicated. Its command and management [capability] is basically in tatters. It can’t belief its communications… Hezbollah operatives and fighters are centered now on their very own survival.”
Cipher Transient professional Paula Doyle, a former Assistant Deputy Director for Operations at CIA, posed questions that confirmed the enormity of the second. “Are Hezbollah and the opposite teams now nervous that Iran doesn’t have their again? And that they due to this fact can’t re-equip, can’t rebuild, can’t retrain quick sufficient to maintain up with the tempo of Israel’s actions? It is a main change.”
Hezbollah heads into 2025 as a shadow of its former self. And that’s largely because of the operation that set off these pagers in Lebanon, on that mid-September afternoon.
Iran and Israel go to conflict
For years it’s been a nightmare state of affairs for the Center East: Israel and Iran would climb the so-called “escalation ladder” from small-scale or proxy assaults to main navy strikes towards each other. It occurred twice in 2024, first in April after which once more in October, exchanges that introduced the Center East to the brink of an unprecedented, full-scale regional conflict.
Iran launched its first-ever main missile and drone assault towards Israel in April, in response to an Israeli air strike that had killed three Iranian generals and 4 others at Iran’s embassy in Damascus. Israel countered, however conflict appeared to have been averted – after which a heavier alternate performed out in October.
To some, the dual episodes of strike-counterstrike meant that the nightmare state of affairs had arrived.
“I might argue that maybe we’re within the wider conflict now,” former CENTCOM Commander and Cipher Transient professional Gen. Frank McKenzie instructed us in October. “We proceed to redefine what a wider conflict is, as every step is crossed. I feel we entered a interval of ‘wider conflict’ again in April, when Iran attacked Israel straight.”
Right here, as with Ukraine’s Kursk invasion, there was a secondary shock in what didn’t occur: Iran proved unwilling or unable to make good on pledges – together with public vows made by the nation’s Supreme Chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – to rain a heavy retaliation down on Israel.
“I feel Iran right here is on actually difficult floor, actually unsure floor,” former Protection Secretary Mark Esper instructed us. “They not have a viable proxy in Hamas. Their proxy, their favourite one, the crown jewel of their ring of fireplace, Hezbollah, has been decimated. The management is gone. They’re on their again heels…so the query is, what’s left for Iran to do?”
“Salt Hurricane” – the cyberattack that the NSA missed
Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Safety Company (CISA) Jen Easterly, has a want: that the names given to 2 main assaults linked to China sound much less like cool spy novels, and extra like what they are surely. “I want I hadn’t ever heard any of those names, like ‘Volt Hurricane,’ ‘Salt Hurricane,’ ‘Midnight Blizzard,’ ‘Tempest Panda’…that actually glorify these villains that frankly need to do monumental hurt to the US of America,” she mentioned. “I’m on a mission to attempt to rename a few of these unhealthy actors to issues like Weak Weasel and Doofus Dingo.”
For now, although, “Salt Hurricane” and “Volt Hurricane” are nonetheless the names for a collection of assaults which have focused – efficiently – essential U.S. infrastructure. Salt Hurricane was the one which struck in 2024 – or, to be extra correct, the one which got here to gentle in 2024. It concerned a cyber invasion and breaching of main American telecommunications firms – together with AT&T and Verizon. The assaults had been startling each for his or her brazenness and the time it took for the cybersecurity officers to appreciate what was taking place. In reality, because the Nationwide Safety Company (NSA) Director Normal Timothy Haugh mentioned, in a chunk we revealed earlier this month, the NSA knew nothing of Salt Hurricane till it obtained an alert from Microsoft. “We didn’t see exercise in U.S. telecommunications networks,” he mentioned.
Salt Hurricane didn’t simply present China’s capacity to breach American telecommunication firms; U.S. officers mentioned the hackers additionally reached into recordsdata related to federal wiretapping operations, possible compromising intelligence neighborhood investigations. The sooner assault, the one generally known as Volt Hurricane, had additionally caught authorities flatfooted. “It combines this good storm of ‘not prepared,’” Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery instructed us, including that current analysis confirmed water provide programs lacked correct safety, infrastructure, and public-private collaboration. “All three components had been lacking,” Montgomery mentioned. “It’s extraordinarily weak.”
Russia’s “hybrid conflict” towards Europe
It’s generally known as “hybrid warfare,” conflict waged with a mix of conventional and unconventional techniques, and by its nature it’s usually not one thing seen out within the open. However more and more in 2024, the scope and gravity of Russia’s efforts on this house grew to become clear, starting from suspected arson assaults, alleged disruption of transportation and communication networks, and assassination plots.
“Russia’s deadly operations are supposed to create worry and coerce governments to chorus from appearing towards Moscow’s pursuits,” Philip Wasielewski wrote in The Cipher Transient. He and others referred to as these actions a type of terrorism, and urged a commensurate response.
“NATO should reply forcefully to those assaults in order that Russia acknowledges the inviolability of NATO soil,” Wasielewski mentioned. “A failure to take action raises a threat that the alliance will face not solely continued assaults, however possible ones of elevated lethality.”
And once more, given the character of such actions, we could effectively not know the half of it.
Trump’s return
Any American presidential election carries international implications, and whereas Donald Trump is an unpredictable determine, his election could convey far-reaching nationwide and international safety implications.
As The Cipher Transient has reported, Trump will take workplace having pledged to finish the Mideast and Ukraine wars, and curtail or finish American assist for Ukraine. He has repeatedly criticized NATO, questioned different longstanding U.S. alliances, boasted of heat relations with dictators, and as a common matter vowed a retrenchment on the subject of U.S. engagement in lots of elements of the world.
To take a current instance, because the rebels routed Assad from energy, and plenty of Cipher Transient consultants and others urged the U.S. to interact in what one referred to as an “extraordinary alternative,” Trump made his views clear: “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED.”
Trump has additionally promised unprecedented tariffs towards China – not a national-security problem, per se, however a coverage that would simply convey national-security ramifications, relying on the response from Beijing. And he has advised or pledged higher relationships with a number of dictators – from Vladimir Putin to Kim Jong Un to Xi Jinping. He even invited Xi to his inauguration.
So with out query, Donald Trump’s election was a worldwide game-changer. Nevertheless it bears repeating: the previous and future president is unpredictable.
A resurgence for the Islamic State
It’s a measure of simply how turbulent 2024 has been that this merchandise barely makes the checklist.
The Islamic State made headlines within the early a part of the yr with assaults that confirmed its geographic attain – bombings in Iran that killed 95 individuals, after which an assault that killed greater than 130 at a live performance corridor on the outskirts of Moscow. Different IS plots had been thwarted, together with one aimed on the American election and one other reportedly focusing on a Taylor Swift live performance in Vienna.
The excellent news? Western intelligence appeared plugged in sufficient to have stopped a number of plots earlier than they got here to fruition; and in Afghanistan, the place the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-Okay) makes its residence, the group has a robust enemy within the ruling Taliban.
Nevertheless it’s additionally the case that IS assaults general jumped in 2024, and as we reported final week, there are considerations that ISIS, the Islamic State’s franchise in Iraq and Syria, may benefit from the chaos following the Syrian rebel, and start a renaissance in that nation.
“Is there the potential for [IS] to return right here (to the U.S.) as a result of it’s broadened into the area?” Cipher Transient professional Javed Ali mentioned in a dialog with us after the Moscow assaults. “You’re taking it one step additional: baked into the jihadist ideology are assaults towards the U.S. homeland.”
Harmful waters: Clashes on the South China Sea
The South China Sea has been a geopolitical flashpoint for many years, but it surely’s sometimes been a spot the place tensions are stored to a low boil. In 2024, China turned up the warmth.
China has claimed rising areas of the South China Sea, and tried to create details on the water, because it had been, increase small, usually uninhabited islands, and in some circumstances putting in navy outposts on these islands. China’s claims have been countered by Southeast Asian nations, and a world tribunal upheld a case introduced by the Philippines on its claims of sovereignty in 2016.
However in 2024, Chinese language and Philippine coast guard and naval vessels discovered themselves in more and more hostile confrontations. In probably the most violent incident, a Chinese language ship rammed a Philippine boat making an attempt to resupply a garrison of Filipino troops on the grounded warship Sierra Madre within the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. Philippine officers mentioned Chinese language crew members armed with spears and knives boarded their vessel, and that a number of Filipinos had been injured within the incident. The Philippines have additionally taken a stronger rhetorical stand towards China these days, below President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Final month, Marcos signed legal guidelines reaffirming the attain of his nation’s maritime territories and proper to assets, together with within the South China Sea. China issued a “stern protest” in response.
It is a nationwide safety problem for the US as effectively, which has repeatedly sailed ships by means of the South China Sea as an expression of the proper to navigation, and the U.S. has a longstanding alliance with the Philippines.
“If China bodily assaults a treaty ally of the US,” mentioned Cipher Transient professional RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret), “it’s going to place us in a really powerful place as a result of this isn’t like Ukraine and Russia, the place Ukraine was not a treaty ally. This turns into a credibility problem for the US.”
It could be that 2025 is another yr of excessive rigidity with out precise kinetic battle; however the South China Sea might simply as simply vault to the highest of an inventory like this one, one yr from now.
Ethan Masucol contributed to reporting.
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