The dispute between US music publishers and Spotify has been one of many extra dramatic music enterprise tales of the yr.
But regardless of the typically harsh phrases that publishers have had for Spotify over its choice to categorise its Premium music subscription tier as a “bundle” with audiobooks – thereby lowering mechanical royalty payouts to music house owners – Spotify has made it clear that it doesn’t plan to again down.
“Many platforms take bundled therapies, so we’re not distinctive in that regard,” Ben Kung, Spotify’s VP of Monetary Planning and Evaluation and interim CFO, mentioned on the corporate’s newest earnings name on Tuesday (July 23).
“We received’t be commenting on the specifics of the mechanics of our offers, however all we will say is that we’re very assured in our place [and] within the path that we’re on at this level.”
For his half, co-founder and CEO Daniel Ek steered that, even with the lowered mechanical royalty payouts, Spotify will likely be paying out extra to rights holders this yr, and going ahead.
“I believe lots of people wish to make this type of a zero-sum sport, the place we have now to win to ensure that them to lose, or they need to win, after which we type of lose. It isn’t basically how we view this in any respect. We have a look at it [as] far more of a win-win,” Ek mentioned.
“General, whether or not on the publishing aspect or the label aspect, once I have a look at our numbers, we hold rising our payouts yr over yr… Final yr, on the publishing aspect, we had document payouts in 2023. This yr, 2024, we are going to beat these numbers and have much more payouts [to publishers]. And the identical will, after all, be true on the label aspect. So it’s not as a lot of a zero-sum sport as folks make it [out to be].”
“I believe lots of people wish to make this type of a zero-sum sport, the place we have now to win to ensure that them to lose, or they need to win, after which we type of lose. It isn’t basically how we view this in any respect.”
Daniel Ek, Spotify
The dispute started this spring, when Spotify notified publishers that it had determined to categorise its Premium subscription plans within the US as bundles, provided that, since final November, they included 15 hours of audiobooks.
Beneath the US Copyright Royalty Board’s ‘Phonorecords IV’ guidelines, streaming companies will pay out decrease royalty charges from bundled streaming subscriptions than from standalone music subscriptions.
That transfer drew a harsh response from the Nationwide Music Publishers’ Affiliation (NMPA), which accused the Sweden-headquartered streaming service of “attacking the very songwriters who make its enterprise attainable,” within the phrases of NMPA President and CEO David Israelite.
Spotify’s transfer additionally triggered a lawsuit by The Mechanical Licensing Collective (MLC), the physique created to gather mechanical royalties underneath the US’s Music Modernization Act (MMA).
The MLC, which says it has misplaced “nearly 50%” of its royalty collections from Spotify’s Premium particular person, Duo and Household plans because of bundling, argued that Spotify’s Premium plans don’t qualify as precise bundles as a result of the addition of audiobooks didn’t add something greater than “token worth” to the subscription plans.
On the earnings name Tuesday, Spotify’s Ek argued that, regardless of there being “issues that we’re arguing about,” the corporate has largely had a wholesome relationship with the music enterprise – and it’s in Spotify’s curiosity to see the trade develop stronger.
“We’re spending loads of effort and time in ensuring that it retains rising,” Ek mentioned. “That’s our major factor that we’re doing as an organization, and one thing we deeply care about because the core mission of this firm, and I believe that’s acknowledged throughout the whole thing of the music trade as properly.”
Spotify on Tuesday reported its second straight quarter of profitability, the results of a pivot by the corporate from specializing in constructing a consumer base to bettering margins, in what Ek calls a “yr of monetization” for the corporate.
Spotify reported a document excessive working earnings of EUR €266 million (USD $286.4 million) for Q2 of 2024, and its gross margin ballooned to 29.2%, from 24.1% in the identical quarter a yr earlier.
The variety of paying subscribers grew to 246 million, up 12% YoY and a rise of 7 million paying subscribers from the earlier quarter, beating steering by 1 million.
If there was one space of weak point, it was SPOT’s Month-to-month Lively Customers (MAU) rely, which got here in at 626 million. Whereas that was up 14% YoY, it missed steering by 5 million.
The MAU rely is successfully the sum complete of paying subscribers and free (ad-supported) subscribers, so 1 / 4 with sturdy paid subscriber progress and underwhelming MAU progress suggests weak point within the ad-supported aspect of the enterprise. That has led some observers to wonder if which means Spotify’s subscriber funnel is hitting a wall.
Definitely, Spotify doesn’t assume so. In its steering for Q3, it’s forecasting an acceleration in MAU progress, with a internet improve of 13 million, to a complete of 639 million. It’s additionally predicting a 5 million bounce in paid subs, to 251 million, and progress in its gross margin to 30.2%, on an working earnings of €405 million.
Listed here are 4 different issues we discovered on Spotify’s newest earnings name:
1) Spotify has seen surprisingly little churn from its value will increase
A technique through which Spotify’s pivot from buyer acquisition to profitability might be seen is within the sudden change to its method to pricing. After years and years of no value hikes, Spotify raised month-to-month subscription charges in the summertime of 2023 – and fewer than a yr later, it raised them once more in sure key markets, together with the US and UK.
Naturally, analysts on the earnings name had been curious to know whether or not these value hikes have resulted in churn, the well mannered enterprise time period for purchasers cancelling their subscriptions.
Per Spotify’s management, apparently it hasn’t – the truth is, churn has been decrease than they’d anticipated.
“We’re very inspired by what we’re seeing within the three main markets the place we’ve [hiked prices] two occasions within the final 12 months,” Kung mentioned on the decision, evidently referring to the US, UK, and Australia.
“We see that as an awesome information level for type of what is perhaps attainable… in the remainder of our territories,” he added.
However he cautioned to not take that trace of value hikes in different markets an excessive amount of to coronary heart, because it’s nonetheless “early days” when it comes to the affect of a second value hike.
“We’ve solely simply taken this motion, however we’re inspired by… the cancellation charges mainly being higher than anticipated.”
“We’re very inspired by what we’re seeing within the three main markets the place we’ve [hiked prices] two occasions within the final 12 months.”
Ben Kung, Spotify
Kung additionally steered that Spotify’s current launch of a new “primary” tier helped mitigate churn from the worth hikes, by providing prospects the choice of avoiding the worth hike – assuming, after all, they’re proud of a music-only subscription.
Current analysis means that Spotify’s churn price has really dropped dramatically lately, from 3.9% in 2021 to 2% in 2023, proof that the streaming service’s growth from music into podcasts and audiobooks has helped with buyer retention.
And Spotify’s stratification of its subscription plans is a part of what helped the corporate attain profitability in current quarters, Ek mentioned on the decision.
“By introducing new subscription plans, we’re efficiently giving subscribers much more listening selections with choices just like the Audiobooks Entry and primary tiers, that additionally builds on our already sturdy checklist of Premium plans around the globe, together with Particular person, Duo, Pupil, Household and Mini passes,” Ek mentioned.
2) The disappointing month-to-month lively consumer numbers are the results of volatility in rising markets
Daniel Ek provided an fascinating rationalization for why the expansion in complete lively customers hasn’t lives as much as expectations: The Spotify CEO says it has to do with volatility in creating markets.
“Our paid subscription enterprise is primarily anchored in developed markets the place progress in the present day is pushed by internet subscriber additions and strategic pricing,” Ek defined.
“Alternatively, the expansion of our free ad-supported phase is targeted in the present day on creating markets, the place we see potential to transform these customers into subscribers, however on a for much longer time horizon.”
He added: “Now we have important potential to draw a lot of new customers in creating markets. Nevertheless, these customers is usually a little bit extra inconsistent. Engagement seems to be completely different in these markets, as do the channels to amass them, and conversion to paid is usually a bit slower. This makes it troublesome to get the identical stage of ROI effectiveness from our advertising spend [compared to developed markets].”
“Now we have important potential to draw a lot of new customers in creating markets. Nevertheless, these customers is usually a little bit extra inconsistent. Engagement seems to be completely different in these markets, as do the channels to amass them, and conversion to paid is usually a bit slower.”
Daniel Ek, Spotify
Ek additionally means that decrease MAU progress might not have the identical damaging affect on subscriber progress because it might need had prior to now.
“Traditionally, our conversion funnel was fairly easy: a listener would are available as a free consumer, and over time, convert to our normal Premium tier. This course of has developed given the bifurcation between developed and creating markets and the elevated variety of subscription presents we now supply,” he mentioned.
“This implies the connection from free to paid is now not a one-size-fits-all situation, and we’re much less depending on new free customers to gasoline our income progress within the quick to mid-term.”
To deal with the weak point in MAU progress, Ek mentioned Spotify is following a two-pronged method: Enhancing the affect of its advertising spend, and “prioritizing enhancements” to the ad-supported product that he expects will “increase engagement and retention, particularly in our creating markets.”
3) The success of Spotify’s paid subscriptions has come partly at the price of its ad-supported enterprise
One stunning factor that Ek talked about on the decision (although it is sensible when you concentrate on it) is that a few of the success of Spotify’s paid subscription service has come on the expense of its ad-supported enterprise.
Requested by LightShed Ventures analyst Wealthy Greenfield why ad-supported income hasn’t reached the 20% share of complete income that Spotify had been aiming for, Ek responded by saying that it needed to do with listeners switching to paid subscriptions.
“Our subscription enterprise might be doing a bit of bit higher than we anticipated it to do. And as a internet consequence, one of many issues which are taking place is we’re taking a few of our greatest prospects, [our] highest engaged customers, and turning them into paid subscribers, which, after all, diminishes a few of that potential that we have now on the promoting aspect,” Ek mentioned.
“So part of that is… that the combo is bettering in favor [of] the subscription aspect.”
Ek additionally famous that the ad-supported enterprise has been hampered by persevering with spending wanted to shift from direct gross sales to creating programmatic promoting on its platform.
“Now we have been making loads of investments over the previous few years. It’s nonetheless just about of a heavy raise that we have now been doing and that’s, after all, to allow extra programmatic,” Ek mentioned. “You need to undoubtedly anticipate us to maintain investing in that and convey increasingly programmatic and automatic shopping for onto the platform.”
4) A ‘very massive subset’ of customers need the upcoming ‘deluxe’ Spotify tier
On the earnings name, Daniel Ek just about confirmed what has lengthy been rumored and unofficially reported – that Spotify will likely be launching a brand new, pricier “Tremendous-Premium” tier as a part of its efforts to distinguish its paid subscription plans.
Spotify’s management isn’t keen to share many particulars about this new subscription plan, although it’s extensively anticipated to incorporate high-fidelity audio – a characteristic that Spotify has but to roll out, regardless of it being out there on another streaming companies for years at this level.
Different attainable options embrace entry to “superfan golf equipment” and new playlisting and music administration instruments.
Ek described the brand new tier as being for “enormous music lovers who’re primarily searching for much more flexibility in how they use Spotify and the music capabilities that exist on Spotify.”
“The plan right here is to supply a significantly better model of Spotify… type of a deluxe model of Spotify that has the entire advantages that the traditional Spotify model has, however much more management, lots greater high quality throughout the board and another issues that I’m not prepared to speak about simply but.”
Daniel Ek, Spotify
He continued: “The plan right here is to supply a significantly better model of Spotify. One thing like $5 above the present Premium tier… type of a deluxe model of Spotify that has the entire advantages that the traditional Spotify model has, however much more management, lots greater high quality throughout the board, and another issues that I’m not prepared to speak about simply but.”
Ek was, nonetheless, keen to speak concerning the rationale behind making a “deluxe” tier.
“We predict it’s one thing shoppers actually are asking us to do, and we imagine there’s now a really massive subset of that 246 million subscribers that need it,” he mentioned.
And he painted the brand new subscription tier as a optimistic not only for Spotify, however for the music enterprise as a complete.
“I talked about [our] relationship to the music trade and our dedication to rising the whole thing of the music ecosystem. And so I believe this can be a good way the place I believe we will create a win-win each for the artistic ecosystem, but additionally for shoppers as properly…
“It will likely be a internet optimistic for the whole thing of [the] music trade, and can additional improve the expansion that the music trade is seeing.”Music Enterprise Worldwide
